Balkan Barometer

Balkan Barometer 2025 Business Opinion

Key Findings

Business Expectations for Economic Growth in the Western Balkans Six

Across the Western Balkans Six (WB6), business expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months are balanced, reflecting both local conditions and wider global developments. Around a quarter of companies anticipate growth (24%), a similar share expects a slowdown (25%), while just over half (51%) foresee economic performance remaining broadly unchanged. North Macedonia stands out with one-third of businesses (33%) expecting stronger growth, signalling pockets of optimism and continued aspirations for economic expansion despite a challenging environment.

Economy	Significally decline	Slightly decline	Remain the same	Slightly improve	Significantly improve
Figure 1. How do you expect the economy’s growth to change over the next 12 months?
Albania	5	9	40	39	7
Bosnia and Herzegovina	11	26	53	10	0
Kosovo*	9	17	58	15	1
Montenegro	2	14	65	19	0
North Macedonia	5	15	47	30	3
Serbia	8	26	45	19	2
Western Balkans Six	7	18	51	22	2

High Prices, and Informal Economy and Unfair Competition are the Biggest Obstacles for Doing Business

The 2025 survey results show that for businesses operating in the WB6 the most prevalent obstacles to doing business are those related to the high prices (average score recorded at 7.22) and informal economy and unfair competition (average score of 7.10).

Other notable obstacles include corruption in society (6.87), shortage of labour in the market (6.80), access to finance (6.30), inefficient public administration and institutions (6.26), political instability (6.16), crime in society (6.16), and underdeveloped public infrastructure (6.06). At the bottom of the list are weak demand in domestic market (5.92), labour regulations (5.64), and business licensing and permits (5.61).

	Mean
Figure 2. Can you tell me whether the following pose obstacle for the growth of your business? (Scale 1-10, mean WB6)
High taxes	7,22
Informal economy and unfair competition	7,1
Corruption in the society	6,87
Shortage of labour force in the market	6,8
Access to finance	6,3
Inefficient public administration and institutions	6,26
Crime in the society	6,16
Political instability	6,16
Underdeveloped public infrastructure	6,06
Weak demand in domestic market	5,92
Labour regulation	5,64
Business licensing and permits	5,61

Strengthening Conditions for Trade and Growth in the WB6

Businesses across the WB6 continue to place strong and growing importance on the key conditions that shape regional trade. The top priority remains unchanged from the 2024 survey, and all seven examined factors – removal of trade barriers, transportation costs, prices, favourable tax system, quality and cost of the labour force, overall business environment, and similar cultural environment – are considered important by a majority of companies for their trade relations within the region.

More than 70% of businesses highlight prices (76%), favourable tax system (75%), quality and cost of the labour force (73%), and general business environment (73%) as important for their trade with other WB6. Transportation costs and removal of trade barriers are each seen as important by 69% of companies, while 56% regard similar cultural environment as important, with 19% saying it is not.

Compared with the 2024 Balkan Barometer Business Opinion Survey, the perceived importance of all seven factors has increased, suggesting a more prudent and strategic appreciation among companies of the conditions needed to deepen regional trade and support sustainable economic growth.

Economy	Important	Somewhat important	Not important
Figure 3. How important are the following factors for your company’s trade relations with other WB6?
Removal of trade barriers	69	14	17
Transportation costs	69	14	17
Prices	76	12	12
Favourable tax system	75	12	13
Quality and cost of labour force	73	12	15
Business environment in general	73	15	12
Similar cultural environment	56	25	19

Untapped Opportunities for Hiring Talent Across the WB6

The average for the region is 6%, with the highest share of employees from other WB6 found in businesses in Montenegro (18%) followed by Serbia (5%) and Albania (4%).

Economy	Yes answer
Figure 4. Have you hired employees for your company from any of the WB6? (only yes answer)
Albania	4
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3
Kosovo*	0
Montenegro	18
North Macedonia	2
Serbia	5
Western Balkans Six	6

Strengthening Business Awareness of the Circular Economy

Awareness of the circular economy among businesses in the region is gradually advancing, with notable progress in several WB6. Montenegro has recorded the most significant improvement, with the share of businesses familiar with the circular economy doubling from 26% in 2024 to 52% in 2025, now leading the region. Albania also shows a steady upward trend, with awareness increasing from 43% to 47%. At the regional level, an average of 35% of businesses report being familiar with the concept.

Economy	Yes	No	DNK/DA
Figure 5. Awareness of Circular Economy and its Principles
Albania	47	48	5
Bosnia and Herzegovina	29	71	0
Kosovo*	16	84	0
Montenegro	52	47	1
North Macedonia	36	61	3
Serbia	29	71	0
Western Balkans Six	35	64	1

Businesses Highlight Priorities for Advancing the Circular Economy

Businesses in the WB6 point to several key areas where support could significantly accelerate circular economy: 62% cite the need to strengthen skills and experience, 72% underline the importance of government subsidies, 56% refer to improvements in the legal and regulatory framework, and 52% note higher costs as a challenge.

Economy	Increased costs associated with circular economy	Lack of skills and experience	Lack of legal and regulatory framework	Lack of government subsidies	Lack of consumer demand
Figure 6. Barriers to Shifting towards Circular (Waste Free) Economy
Albania	81	59	53	82	72
Bosnia and Herzegovina	44	60	44	46	25
Kosovo*	56	50	34	69	56
Montenegro	19	77	52	81	16
North Macedonia	64	64	73	81	64
Serbia	58	46	68	58	61
Western Balkans Six	52	62	56	72	47

Businesses Put Growing Emphasis on Efficiency and Environmental Responsibility

In 2025, businesses in the WB6 report that both cost efficiency and environmental responsibility shape their decisions. Rising energy and material costs are a major consideration for 76% of companies in Albania and 66% in Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, the aspiration to operate more sustainably has become a driver of business choices, especially in Albania, where 89% of respondents say that becoming more environmentally responsible influences their decisions, and in Kosovo* and Serbia, where this is the case for 58% of companies.

Economy	Carbon taxation, CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms)	ETS (Emissions Trading System)	Rising costs of energy and materials	Opportunities to reduce costs by applying green business solutions	Availability of green finances and incentives under favourable conditions (such as energy efficiency loans)	Access to EU increasingly green markets and opportunities to integrate in EU value chains	Becoming more environment responsible business
Figure 7. Factors Influencing Business Decisions in the Next 12 Months
Albania	45	47	76	73	68	70	89
Bosnia and Herzegovina	17	20	66	24	22	34	44
Kosovo*	12	16	57	49	45	38	58
Montenegro	3	1	36	61	15	12	25
North Macedonia	24	25	58	50	51	43	51
Serbia	40	32	56	51	52	50	58
Western Balkans Six	23	23	58	51	42	41	54

Different Perceptions of Corruption Across the WB6

This year’s findings point to different levels of perceived corruption across the WB6. Overall, 46% of respondents believe that businesses similar to theirs typically make such payments at least once a year in the context of government inspections, underscoring both the persistence of the problem and the scope for further reform.

	Totally disagree	Tend to disagree	Neither agree nor disagree	Tend to agree	Totally agree	DNK/DA
Figure 8. Perception of Corruption - Would you say that you totally agree, tend to agree, neither agree nor disagree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with the following statements: A) It is a common practice for companies in my line of business to have to pay some irregular additional payments/gifts to get things done?
Albania	20	17	12	40	10	1
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	2	15	48	27	6
Kosovo*	7	12	42	27	9	3
Montenegro	10	11	16	28	23	12
North Macedonia	8	33	24	15	14	6
Serbia	51	7	12	20	10	0
Western Balkans Six	16	14	20	29	16	5

Divergent Views on Anti-Corruption Effectiveness

Perceptions of anti-corruption efforts differ across the WB6. Overall, 44% of respondents believe that efforts in their economy are effective.

	Totally disagree	Tend to disagree	Neither agree nor disagree	Tend to agree	Totally agree	DNK/DA
Figure 9 Effectiveness of Anti-Corruption Efforts - To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Fight against corruption is effective in my economy?
Albania	11	19	23	41	6	0
Bosnia and Herzegovina	27	17	5	31	13	7
Kosovo*	2	11	37	30	17	3
Montenegro	20	18	27	15	7	13
North Macedonia	6	14	16	35	28	1
Serbia	35	11	12	29	12	1
Western Balkans Six	17	15	20	30	14	4

EU Remains a Key Destination for Regional Investment, Alongside Growing Intra-Regional Focus

The 2025 findings suggest a more cautious overall investment outlook across all destinations, including the EU and other WB6, likely reflecting both domestic and global uncertainties. Despite this, the European Union remains the principal external destination for the region’s planned investments. At the same time, when taken together, businesses in the WB6 indicate a stronger intention to invest within the region itself than in the EU, pointing to a growing emphasis on regional opportunities and closer economic ties at home.

	Planned investment	Past investment
Figure 9 Effectiveness of Anti-Corruption Efforts - To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Fight against corruption is effective in my economy?
Albania	4	15
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	7
Kosovo*	5	4
Montenegro	2	11
North Macedonia	2	2
Serbia	2	11
EU	5	21
Other	1	5
Nowhere	87	51

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* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence