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Given its comparatively lower exposure to capital inflows and the banking sector of the euro zone, the Albanian economy has generally outperformed SEE regional economic growth since 2008 (Figure 1), being one of the two economies (the second being Kosovo*) which did not experience a GDP reduction in 2009 or 2012.
While there has been some increase in unemployment in 2009–2011, according to the Labour Force Survey data of the Albanian Statistics Agency, unemployment is currently the lowest in the region, at around 14%.
Exports per capita in Albania are also among the lowest in the region, but the country has seen some strong increases in exports in recent years (Figure 2).
The general government sector is characterised by a smaller size of government than regional averages, but carries high public debt (the highest in the region, reaching over 70% of GDP), as shown in Figure 3.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
The headline indicators for Albania within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010–2013 data (where available)1. For most of the headline indicators, Albania has made some progress to date towards reaching the 2020 targets.
However, for some of the indicators, the data (showing relatively small progress or mixed/reverse trends in 2010–2012/2013) may imply that the 2020 targets are too ambitious. This applies to total trade, which would need to increase by 133% in the 2014-2020 period, exports per capita, which would need to increase by 170%, and inter-regional trade, which would need to increase by 116%.
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Albania |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall strategic goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011-2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per Capita Relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
27.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
n/a |
38.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total Trade in Goods and Services (EUR million) |
7,695 |
8,154 |
7,596 |
7,498 |
17,500 |
IMF, since Agency for Statistics only has GDP by expenditure until 2008 |
3. Trade Balance (% of GDP) |
-24.0 |
-20.9 |
-23.1 |
-19.0 |
-14.3 |
|
Integrated growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional Trade in Goods (EUR million) |
425 |
509 |
533 |
n/a |
1,150 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI Inflows (EUR million) |
793 |
717 |
727 |
741 |
2,200 |
IMF |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per Person Employed (EUR at PPS) |
17,839 |
18,521 |
19,359 |
n/a |
24,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
216,000 |
163,972 |
171,819 |
n/a |
260,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net Enterprise Creation (new businesses per year) |
2,045 |
3,070 |
2,291 |
n/a |
2,500 |
Agency for Statistics |
9. Exports of Goods and Services per Capita (EUR) |
1,023 |
1,074 |
1,050 |
1,073 |
2,900 |
IMF |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall Employment Rate, % of 15+ population |
47.1 |
51.9 |
50.1 |
n/a |
54.3 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government Effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
n/a |
2.7 |
WGI |
1 An internal consistency check of the headline indicators implies a possible internal inconsistency for Albania for 2010: Albanian GDP per person employed (in EUR PPS) based on actual data is around 22,000 EUR, while the 2010 baseline indicator in the adopted SEE 2020 Strategy is 17,839 EUR.
The Government of Albania has drafted and sent for adoption the SEE 2020 National Action Plan (NAP) 2014–2020, which also includes SEE 2020 NAP for the period 2014–2015. A total of 96 measures have been defined for the 2014–2015 period. Figure 1 outlines a breakdown of the number of individual measures by pillar.
Measures and actions under the Integrated Growth Pillar include: reduction of administrative costs and the removal of non-tariff trade barriers (ex-post and ex-ante); strengthening competition rules by creating a trade zone as an instrument of trade protection; improving electronic services in the area of protection of intellectual property rights; improving foreign investment policies; increasing FDI flows by accelerating the privatisation process and promoting economic zones, industrial parks and free zones.
Under the Smart Growth Pillar, measures, inter alia, consist of the reform of pre-university education, and legislative and institutional actions, such as the development of the new Law in Higher Education. The legal framework for the implementation of financing reform in higher education and the drafting of an action plan on entrepreneurial learning focused particularly on female entrepreneurship are also envisaged. Additional measures and actions include supporting scientific research; facilitating a business approach to innovation; implementing the National Plan for the Development of Broadband and drafting the National Interoperability Framework; and continuing the integrated rehabilitation of cultural heritage (Ljubljana Process) through, inter alia, a review of the Cultural Heritage Law.
The Sustainable Growth Pillar includes several measures that will focus on developing the First NAP on Renewable Energy and the Second National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency. It also includes measures to further improve legislation and the tariff system to enable a better investment climate and attract more investors; implement the conclusions and recommendations of the National Transport Plan; draft laws and bylaws in the transport sector; draft a National Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation and a National Strategy on Integrated Water Resource Management; promote female entrepreneurship, establish industrial clusters and encourage creative enterprises.
The Inclusive Growth Pillar focuses on promoting quality employment and opportunities for education and vocational training for women and men; reforming social care services; a number of actions to further promote gender equality; modernising the system of social assistance; improving public health legislation; drafting the Strategy for Annual Check-ups, and undertaking policies for infectious disease prevention.
The Governance for Growth Pillar focuses on the following measures and actions: ensuring full implementation of the Law on Civil Service, getting approval for the Strategy for Public Administration Reform and improving electronic governance; drafting and getting approval for a National Strategy for the Fight against Corruption for 2014–2017; increasing cooperation between the judicial inspectorate and anti-corruption agencies; increasing the efficiency of the courts; and getting approval for the Law on Arbitration.

While the pre-crisis economic growth of BiH outpaced average regional growth, the crisis significantly impacted the country (Figure 1). GDP performance in BiH was weaker than the regional average in 2009–2012 due to the external environment, but also because of important internal weaknesses in the economy.
This poor economic performance coupled with the fact that BiH’s GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) is the second lowest in the SEE region (at 7,424 EUR in 2012, only Kosovo* has lower per capita GDP), implies that BiH has seen the slowest convergence to the EU GDP in the SEE region since 2010.
Unemployment has also been particularly high, constantly increasing since 2008 from 23.4% to 28% in 2012 (third highest unemployment in the region after The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Kosovo*). Exports per capita in are also among the lowest in the region, but the country has seen some strong increases in exports in recent years (Figure 2).
The general government sector in BiH is the largest in the region at almost 50% of GDP and is also very large globally when compared to countries with similar income levels. Public debt increased from below 20% in the pre-crisis period to over 40% of GDP in 2013.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
The headline indicators for BiH within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010-2013 data (where available)1.
For most of the headline indicators, BiH has made some progress towards reaching the 2020 target. However, for some of the indicators, like all other SEE 2020 economies, actual data (showing relatively small progress or mixed/reverse trends in 2010-2012/2013) may imply that the 2020 targets are too ambitious.
This applies to total trade, which in the case of BiH would need to increase by 111% in the 2014-2020 period, exports per capita, which would need to increase by 135%, and inter-regional trade, which would need to increase by 120%. The overall employment rate shows a continuous reverse trend, with a decrease from 32.5% in 2010 to 31.6% in 2013.
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Bosnia and Herzegovina |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall strategic goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011-2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per Capita Relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
28.0 |
29.0 |
29.0 |
n/a |
38.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total Trade in Goods and Services (EUR million) |
12,138 |
11,418 |
11,323 |
11,609 |
24,500 |
Agency for Statistics up to 2012 and DEP for 2013 |
3. Trade Balance (% of GDP) |
-25.6 |
-23.3 |
-23.5 |
-22.5 |
-20.2 |
|
Integrated growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional Trade in Goods (EUR million) |
3,100 |
3,445 |
3,231 |
n/a |
7,100 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI Inflows (EUR million) |
174 |
342 |
273 |
320 |
500 |
IMF (Central Bank data unavailable for 2013, but previous data in line with IMF) |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per Person Employed (EUR at PPS) |
29,183 |
34,838 |
35,424 |
n/a |
40,200 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
213,000 |
168,000 |
164,000 |
185,000.0 |
255,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net Enterprise Creation (new businesses per year) |
1,896 |
2,639 |
1,694 |
n/a |
2,300 |
Agency for Statistics |
9. Exports of Goods and Services per Capita (EUR) |
1,232 |
1,057 |
1,038 |
1,108 |
2,600 |
Agency for Statistics |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall Employment Rate, % of 15+ population |
32.5 |
31.9 |
31.7 |
31.6 |
33.9 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government Effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
1.8 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
n/a |
2.1 |
WGI |
1 Internal consistency checks of the headline indicators for BiH shows broad consistency. There is a possible issue with the original 2010 baseline data-the number of highly qualified persons in the workforce may have been mistaken in the original 2010 data for the number of highly qualified persons of working age.
A National Action Plan (NAP) for SEE 2020 in Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently under development. Technical assistance provided to the BiH authorities on SEE 2020 NAP identified a total of 92 measures for the period 2014-15. Figure 1 outlines the breakdown of number of measures by pillar.
Proposed measures and actions under the Integrated Growth Pillar include: review the Foreign Trade Policy Law; increase institutional and private sector capacity to benefit from the implementation of CEFTA; adopt a coherent legal framework for protection, enforcement and promotion of trade related intellectual property rights; strengthen the internal market in BiH; review the investment framework of BiH; and further improvement of the business climate, especially easing company registration procedures.
Under the Smart Growth Pillar, proposed measures, inter alia, consist of policies which will increase equitable access to, and participation in, high quality education at all levels; implement measures to prevent early-school leaving and drop-out; improve completion rates at all levels; support the establishment of a Research Excellence Fund and adoption and implementation of e-legislation and related strategic documents.
The Sustainable Growth Pillar includes several proposed measures that focus on the development and adoption of the legislative, regulatory and institutional framework for energy efficiency; development of an information campaign and capacity building programme on energy efficiency; improving road infrastructure and the transport network; developing countrywide strategic planning and harmonising the legal framework for environmental protection; developing a functioning environmental monitoring and information system as well as a horizontal and vertical communication and information exchange in this sector; increasing support for small and medium enterprises; and developing the business infrastructure in BiH.
The proposed measures and actions in the Inclusive Growth Pillar focus on strengthening the capacities and reputation of the Public Employment Services; development of efficient active labour market policies; adoption and implementation of a model for delivery of universal and high-quality health; promoting health services at all levels of care with an emphasis on the primary care sector; and strengthening human resources in the health care sector
The Governance for Growth pillar potential measures focus on improving strategic planning, coordination and policy-making at all levels of government; human resources management; building capacity of the Agency for the Prevention of Corruption and Anti-Corruption; ensuring independence and harmonization of the judiciary; and coordination of authorities in the field of justice.

While Croatia has by far the highest GDP per capita in the region, relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) at EUR 16,384 in 2012, its strong economic ties to the EU and internal structural weaknesses have resulted in a continuous decrease in GDP since 2009 (Figure 1). The unemployment rate doubled from 8.6% in 2008 to 17.6% in 2013. However, in the regional context, Croatia still has a lower unemployment rate than the other economies (with the exception of Albania).
Exports per capita are the highest in the region at around EUR 4,300 per capita, but export performance since 2009 has been weak (Figure 2).
The general government sector in Croatia is quite large at over 40% of GDP. Public debt increased from around 30% in the pre-crisis period to around 60% of GDP.
The headline indicators for Croatia within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010–2013 data (where available).
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Croatia |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall Strategic Goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011–2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
59.0 |
60.0 |
64.0 |
n/a |
68.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total trade in goods and services (EUR million) |
35,400 |
37,092 |
37,752 |
36,701 |
80,000 |
Agency for Statistics |
3. Trade balance (% of GDP) |
-3.8 |
-0.1 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
-3.3 |
|
Integrated Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional trade in goods (EUR million) |
2,474 |
2,809 |
3,004 |
n/a |
6,200 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI inflows (EUR million) |
326 |
1,087 |
1,066 |
437 |
1,500 |
Central Bank |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per person employed (EUR at PPS) |
40,990 |
43,765 |
50,028 |
n/a |
52,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
504,800 |
418,000 |
430,400 |
448,000.0 |
605,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net enterprise creation (new businesses per year) |
7,800 |
8,778 |
10,543 |
-11,603 |
9,300 |
Agency for Statistics |
9. Exports of goods and services per capita (EUR) |
4,010 |
4,329 |
4,441 |
4,314 |
9,000 |
Agency for Statistics |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall employment rate, % of 15+ population |
41.1 |
39.5 |
38.1 |
36.4 |
47.5 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
n/a |
3.7 |
WGI |
The actual figures generally show that Croatia is gradually progressing towards the set headline targets for 2020. The main convergence with the set targets can be seen in trade balance and GDP per employed person. However, this convergence is due to a variety of rather unfavourable underlying issues, since Croatia has faced deep structural macroeconomic imbalances over the past number of years. This has led to a decrease in employment accompanied by stable or even slightly decreasing real GDP growth, as well as decreasing imports resulting from reduced personal consumption.
Therefore, convergence cannot be observed concurrently in total trade in goods and services and the overall employment rate. Croatia’s accession to the EU as of 1 July 2013 has not yet generated the expected growth, as it has not had the time or capacity to fully utilise EU structural funds or Cohesion Funds while at the same time there have been additional budget pressures due to Croatia’s participation in the EU budget. Moreover, export-driven growth has been suppressed due to Croatia’s exit from CEFTA, which negatively affected intra-regional trade as one of the 11 set headline targets.
Croatia’s strategic vision and its implications for SEE 2020, can be derived from an examination of key strategic documents. Figure 1 presents the number of Croatian strategic documents that are aligned with the main dimensions of SEE 2020. A total of 32 strategies covering the period 2014–2015 have been identified.
Strategies under the Integrated Growth Pillar include: the Action Plan for Export Support 2014–2015, the Strategy to Encourage Investment in Croatia 2014–2020 and the Industry Strategy of the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020.
Strategies under the Smart Growth Pillar include: the Strategy of Education, Science and Technologies Development, the Innovation Strategy of the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020, the Broadband Development Strategy of the Republic of Croatia in the period 2012–2015, a Strategy for the Protection, Conservation and Sustainable Economic use of Croatian Cultural Heritage for the period 2011–2015 and a Strategy for the Development of Culture to 2020.
Strategies and action plans related to the Sustainable Growth Pillar include: the Energy Development Strategy of the Republic of Croatia to 2020, the Strategy of Transport Development for the Republic of Croatia 2014–2030, a Strategy of Maritime Development and Integrated Maritime Policy for the period 2014–2020, the Waste Management Strategy 2005–2025, the Waste Management Plan 2007–2015, the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of the Republic of Croatia to 2050, an Air Protection Plan, Ozone Layer and Climate Change Mitigation for the period 2013–2017, the Strategy of Adjustments to Climate Change, a Water Management Strategy 2008–2038, an Action Plan for the Development of Organic Agriculture 2011–2016, a Strategy for Cluster Development in the Republic of Croatia 2011–2020, the Smart Specialisation Strategy 2014–2020, an Entrepreneurship Development Strategy 2013–2020, the National Strategy for the Development of Social Entrepreneurship 2014–2020, a Convergence Programme 2014–2017, Guidelines for Economic and Fiscal Policy 2014–2016 and a Strategy for Tourism Development in the Republic of Croatia until 2020.
Strategies related to the Inclusive Growth Pillar include: a Youth Guarantee Implementation Plan 2014–2020, the National Health Development Strategy 2012–2020, and the National Development Plan for Clinical Centres, University Hospitals, Clinics and General Hospitals in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2016.
Relevant Governance for Growth Pillar strategies are as follows: The strategy for the Modernisation of Public Administration 2014–2020, an Anti-Corruption Strategy and Justice Development Strategy 2013–2018.

While Kosovo* has continuously had by far the highest GDP growth rates in the SEE region since 2007 and remained relatively unaffected by the crisis (given its comparatively lower exposure to capital inflows and the banking sector of the euro-zone), its GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) is still by far lowest in the region, at 5,773 EUR per capita in 2012 (Figure 1).
Given that Labour Force Survey data from the Kosovo* Agency for Statistics is only available for 2009 and 2012, unemployment rate trends cannot be followed in detail, however, the available data shows unemployment rate decreasing from 45% in 2009 to 31% in 2012 (which is, along with the unemployment rate in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the highest unemployment rate in the region).
Exports per capita are by far the lowest in the region (at 522 EU per capita), although there has been some export increase recently (Figure 2).
The general government sector is the smallest in the region at under 30% of GDP. Public debt is low and has held at below 20% of GDP throughout the crisis.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
The headline indicators for Kosovo* within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010-2013 data (where available).1 For most of the headline indicators, it has made some progress towards reaching the 2020 target. However, for some of the indicators, the actual data (with relatively small progress or mixed/reverse trends in 2010-2012/2013) may imply that the 2020 targets are too ambitious. As for all SEE 2020 economies this applies to total trade, which would need to increase by 68% in 2014-2020 period, intra-regional trade that would need to increase by 111% and exports per capita which would need to increase by 130%.
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Kosovo * |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
Source |
Overall strategic goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011-2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per Capita Relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
22.0 |
23.0 |
22.6 |
n/a |
27.0 |
World Fact book |
2. Total Trade in Goods and Services (EUR million) |
3,321 |
3,681 |
3,576 |
3,573 |
6,000 |
IMF, since Agency for Statistics has GDP by expenditure data only to 2011 |
3. Trade Balance (% of GDP) |
-36.6 |
-37.6 |
-35.2 |
-32.0 |
-17.8 |
|
Integrated growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional Trade in Goods (EUR million) |
872 |
955 |
946 |
n/a |
2,000 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI Inflows (EUR million) |
366 |
379 |
213 |
286 |
800 |
IMF |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per Person Employed (EUR at PPS) |
14,966 |
0 |
34,621 |
n/a |
20,200 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, World Fact book for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
n/a |
n/a |
92,000 |
n/a |
n/a |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net Enterprise Creation (new businesses per year) |
141 |
150 |
1,713 |
-171 |
170 |
Agency for Statistics |
9. Exports of Goods and Services per Capita (EUR) |
495 |
525 |
509 |
522 |
1,200 |
GDP as above |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall Employment Rate, % of 15+ population |
41.7 |
n/a |
25.5 |
n/a |
45.8 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government Effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
n/a |
2.3 |
WGI |
One of the implications from Kosovo*’s progress in terms of headline indicators is that there is a possible issue with original 2010 baseline data: data on the overall employment rate for population over 15 seems to be overestimated at 41.7%, given that available labour force survey data (available in the Agency of Statistics of Kosovo* for 2009 and 2012) shows employment rate at 26% and 25.5%, respectively.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
1 Internal consistency check of the headline indicators implies significant possible internal inconsistency for Kosovo* for 2010 – Kosovo* GDP per person employed (in EUR PPS) based on actual data is around 30.000 EUR, while the 2010 baseline indicator in adopted SEE 2020 Strategy is 14.996 EUR. This is likely explained by the above-mentioned possible mistake in Kosovo* 2010 data - the Kosovo* 2010 original baseline was overestimated at 41.7%, given that available labour force survey data for Kosovo* (available in the Agency of Statistics of Kosovo* for 2009 and 2012) shows employment rate at 26% in 2009 and 2012. As a result, for 2020, in order to satisfy ambitious GDP growth and targeted GDP per employee (which ends up being lower than the 2010 actual value due to above-mentioned likely mistake in employment rate in 2010), employment rate in Kosovo* would need to increase from 26% to 58%, which is not realistic.
In terms of SEE 2020 implementation, the government has drafted the SEE 2020 National Action Plan 2014–2015. A total of 72 measures have been identified and Figure 1 shows a breakdown of the measures by pillar.
More specifically, under the Integrated Growth Pillar, the government will, inter alia, focus on facilitating the free flow of investment and services, eliminate the remaining tariffs and quotas in agricultural products and tackle non-tariff barriers to trade, improve market access, implement policies to assist foreign investors and to boost FDI, protect trademarks throughout the economy and strengthen the capacities of tax officials to combat tax evasion and fraud.
Under the Smart Growth Pillar, the focus will, inter alia, be on introducing policies to increase equitable access to education at all levels, standardising qualifications and removing obstacles to their recognition, ensuring that education better meets economic and labour market needs, establishing five national Centres of Excellence in priority research areas and creating a fund dedicated to research and innovation in the business sector; developing broadband infrastructure; finalising a strategy and setting a date for the switch from analogue to digital broadcasting; improving access and reliability of e-services from central and local government; digitising national high-school final exams; and a number of measures related to rehabilitating cultural heritage through the Ljubljana Process.
Key strategic actions of the government under the Sustainable Growth Pillar are: implementing the second mid-term energy efficiency plan 2013–2015 with the aim of a 3% energy saving from GFEC, completing the legal basis for and establishment of the Energy Efficiency Fund; incentivising renewable energy sources (RES), to attract private investment in RES; getting approval for the Sectorial and Multimodal Transport Strategy and Action Plan, adopting the Framework Strategy on Climate Change and approximating legislation with the EU climate acquis; finalising and adopting the Kosovo* Water Strategy 2014–2033; designing a policy for high growth SMEs; and promoting cooperation in the area of competition policy by strengthening the Kosovo* Competition Commission (KCC).
Under the Inclusive Growth Pillar, the government will focus on developing the necessary legal infrastructure to collect, safeguard and analyse migration data; increasing the capacities of civil servants responsible for planning, facilitating and reporting on the regional consultative process on labour mobility; abolishing labour market restrictions; developing an ICT-based system for the Labour Inspectorate to easily identify those involved in informal employment, and to monitor their performance; introducing concrete policy measures to improve the health of the population, with a focus on people in extreme poverty and those with special needs; and adopting and implementing the Law on Health Insurance.
Under Governance for Growth Pillar, the following actions have, inter alia, been identified: advancing the integrated strategic planning system at central and local levels; drafting and adopting a training strategy for civil servants; reviewing, updating and implementing the Strategy and Action Plan on e-Governance; introducing an e-procurement system; addressing properly and continuously audit recommendations; establishing the Justice Academy; amending the Law on Notaries and amending legislation on alternative dispute resolution and harmonisation.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

While the pre-crisis economic growth of Montenegro exceeded the average regional growth, the crisis significantly impacted the economy in 2009 and 2012 (Figure 1) due to its high exposure to foreign capital inflows and the banking sector of the euro zone. However, most recent growth rates in Montenegro are higher than the regional averages.
Montenegro’s GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) is estimated to be the second highest in the SEE region (at 10,496 EUR in 2012, only Croatia has higher per capita GDP). Unemployment increased from under 17% in 2008 to around 20% in 2010–2012 (the third lowest unemployment rate in the region after Albania and Croatia).
Exports per capita are the second highest in the region (second to Croatia) at around 2,200 per capita in 2012, and the country’s export trend since 2010 has outperformed SEE averages (Figure 2).
The general government sector in Montenegro is large at over 45% of GDP. Public debt increased significantly from 28% in 2008 to 57% of GDP in 2013.
The headline indicators for Montenegro within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010–2013 data (where available)1. For most of the headline indicators, it has made some progress towards reaching the 2020 target.
With respect to the main implications of the Montenegrin progress on the headline indicators, trade indicators for Montenegro are somewhat more realistic than for other SEE countries, with the total trade target, export per capita target, and intra-regional trade target requiring 2014–2020 growths of 70%, 76% and 15% respectively.
The overall GDP per capita relative to the EU average shows a reverse trend, with a decrease from 42% in 2010–2011 to 41% in 2012. The overall employment rate also decreased from 40.1% in 2012 to 39.4% in 2013.
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Montenegro |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall Strategic Goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011–2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
42.0 |
42.0 |
41.0 |
n/a |
51.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total trade in goods and services (EUR million) |
3,118 |
3,489 |
3,555 |
3,530 |
6,000 |
Agency for Statistics up to 2012, IMF for 2013 |
3. Trade balance (% of GDP)2 |
-36.8 |
-22.2 |
-24.7 |
-22.3 |
-24.0 |
|
Integrated Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional trade in goods (EUR million) |
800 |
1,003 |
1,040 |
872 |
1,200 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA2011-2012, Agency for statistics 2013 |
5. Overall FDI inflows (EUR million) |
574 |
495 |
634 |
479 |
700 |
Central Bank |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per person employed (EUR at PPS) |
30,321 |
33,534 |
32,480 |
n/a |
37,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
56,000 |
58,200 |
62,400 |
69,200 |
68,000 |
Agency for Statistics ,LFS, (T 4.1.) |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net enterprise creation (new businesses per year) |
436 |
n/a |
1,714 |
2,986 |
520 |
Agency for Statistics, Statistical business register 2012-2013 |
9. Exports of goods and services per capita (EUR) |
1,871 |
2,230 |
2,233 |
2,243 |
3,950 |
Agency for Statistics |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall employment rate, % of 15+ population |
40.1 |
39.1 |
40.1 |
40,3 |
49.6 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
n/a |
3.1 |
WGI |
1 An internal consistencies check of the headline indicators for Montenegro shows broad consistency.
2 Trade balance data (% of GDP) for 2010 is average for 2008–10 for goods. Trade balance data for goods and services for the period 2010–2013 is 25,9%, 22,2%, 24,7% and 22,3% respectively.
The Government of Montenegro adopted the SEE 2020 National Action Plan for the period 2014–2015. With the utmost priority given to the EU accession process and the ongoing negotiations, the Montenegrin NAP is also fully aligned with the commitments undertaken in the accession strategy. A total of 49 measures have been defined for 2014–2015. Figure 1 outlines a pillar breakdown by number of measures.
Measures and actions under the Integrated Growth Pillar include, but are not limited to: implementation of the Strategy and the Action Plan for the Custom Directorate 2013–2015 as well as the Strategy for the implementation of the EU acquis in the area of free movement of goods 2014–2018; legislative drafting in the area of copyrights and patents, simplification of tax payment procedures; and implementation of the Strategy for attracting foreign direct investment 2013–2015, including the development of economic diplomacy.
Under the Smart Growth Pillar, measures, inter alia, consist of reforming the higher education financing system, supporting the implementation of the National Qualifications Framework, developing an educational action plan using the PISA 2012 results and analysis; developing the Strategies for Vocational Education Training and Adult Education 2015–2015; supporting the establishment of the first Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Montenegro and realising larger R&D grant programmes; further supporting the implementation of the Strategic plan for the establishment of Montenegro’s first technological park (Technopolis); adopting secondary legislation based on the Law on Electronic Communications; adopting a plan to improve digital literacy at a national level; adopting the Law on Cinematography and participating in the Compendium initiative; and increasing linkages between the culture, agriculture and tourism sectors.
The Sustainable Growth Pillar includes several measures that will focus on adopting a national renewable energy action plan; adopting the Energy Development Strategy 2030; a number of legislative and institutional actions related to improving road safety; drafting a National Environment Approximation Strategy and a National Strategy and Action Plan for Combating Climate Change; developing a National Strategy for Water Management 2015–2024; implementing the Strategy and Action Plan for SME Development 2011–2015 as well as the Strategy and Action Plan for the Enhancement of Competitiveness at the Micro Level for the period 2011–2015; improving access to finance for SMEs; and adopting the Strategy for Encouraging Women Entrepreneurship 2015-2018.
Under the Inclusive Growth Pillar, the focus will be on streamlining regulation regarding the residence and employment of foreigners; developing incentive schemes to encourage formal employment; implementing the Action Plan for Employment and Human Resource Development for 2014; implementing the Law on Professional Development of Persons with University Education; implementing the national screening programme at primary healthcare level for the early identification of the harmful use of alcohol; and actively participating in the work of the Secretariat of the Health Network of SEE countries.
Under the Governance for Growth Pillar, the government will focus on developing a Strategy for the Professional Development of Local Governments for the Period 2014–2018, along with an action plan; improving the e-government portal to facilitate communication with citizens and businesses; reporting on the progress achieved in the implementation of the action plans for negotiation chapters 23 & 24; establishing the new Anti-corruption Agency and drafting the Law on Lobbying and the Law on the Special Prosecution Office.

The pre-crisis economic growth of Serbia was lower than the regional average, and the 2009 GDP contraction was strong. The 2010–2012 growth dynamics in Serbia broadly followed regional average trends, while 2013 growth was somewhat stronger (Figure 1).
Serbia’s GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) is estimated to be the third highest in the SEE region (at 9,216 EUR in 2012, with Croatia and Montenegro having higher GDP per capita).
Unemployment increased significantly from under 14% in 2008 to almost 24% in 2013 (broadly in line with the regional average), exhibiting continuous growth from year to year. Exports per capita are slightly lower than the regional average at around 1,650 per capita in 2012, with a recent strong export increase (Figure 2).
The general government sector is the second largest in the region (second to BiH) at almost 50% of GDP and is also very large globally when compared to countries with similar income levels. Public debt increased significantly from 33% in 2008 to 66% of GDP in 2013.
The headline indicators for Serbia within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010–2013 data (where available).1
For most of the headline indicators, Serbia has made progress towards reaching the SEE 2020 target. However, for some of the indicators, actual data (showing relatively small progress or mixed/reverse trends in 2010–2012/2013) may imply that the 2020 targets are too ambitious. In line with all other SEE 2020 economies, this applies to intra-regional trade, which in the case of Serbia would need to increase by 210% in the 2014–2020 period, and exports per capita, which would need to increase by 133%.
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for Serbia |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall Strategic Goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011–2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
35.0 |
36.0 |
36.0 |
n/a |
41.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total trade in goods and services (EUR million) |
24,907 |
27,557 |
29,093 |
32,004 |
60,000 |
Agency for Statistics |
3. Trade balance (% of GDP) |
-20.4 |
-16.4 |
-17.9 |
-11.7 |
-14.0 |
|
Integrated Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Intra-regional trade in goods (EUR million) |
3,544 |
3,808 |
3,755 |
n/a |
10,150 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI inflows (EUR million) |
1,003 |
1,827 |
242 |
756 |
2,500 |
Central Bank |
Smart Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. GDP per person employed (EUR at PPS) |
25,864 |
29,126 |
29,774 |
n/a |
34,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce (million) |
546,290 |
587,795 |
618,120 |
649,737.5 |
655,000 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Net enterprise creation (new businesses per year) |
9,715 |
903 |
231 |
n/a |
11,660 |
Agency for Statistics |
9. Exports of goods and services per capita (EUR) |
1,381 |
1,364 |
1,564 |
1,653 |
3,850 |
GDP as above |
Inclusive Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. Overall employment rate, % of 15+ population |
37.9 |
35.8 |
35.5 |
37.7 |
43.8 |
Agency for Statistics LFS |
Governance for Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. Government effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
n/a |
2.9 |
WGI |
The 2020 target value for FDI inflow is also quite ambitious, requiring a growth of 170% in 2020 in comparison to the 2013 value albeit that this indicator can be impacted by one-off data.
1 An internal consistency check of the headline indicators implies a significant possible internal inconsistency for Serbia for 2020: total trade volume in Serbia is calculated at around 51 billion EUR, while the SEE 2020 target is 60 billion EUR.
Figure 1 presents the number of strategic documents of Serbia that are aligned with the main areas of actions/dimensions of the SEE 2020. A total of 59 strategies relevant to the SEE 2020 have been identified, covering 2014-2015 period.
Strategies under the Integrated Growth Pillar, inter alia, include: the Strategy on Market Supervision, the National Anti-Corruption Strategy, the Strategy for Industrial Policy (2011-2020), the Fiscal Strategy for 2014 with the projections for 2015 and 2016, the Strategy for the Development of Quality Infrastructure in Serbia 2014-2020, the Consumer Protection Strategy and Regulatory Reform Strategy in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2013 – 2015.
Strategies under the Smart Growth Pillar include: the Strategy for Development of Education in Serbia by 2020, the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, the Intellectual Property Development Strategy for the Period 2011-2015, a Strategy of Development and State Support for the Information Technology Industry, the Strategy of Electronic Communications Development until 2020, the Strategy of Electronic Communications Development until 2020 and the Culture Development Strategy 2013-2023.
The Sustainable Growth Pillar includes several strategies and action plans that are in line with SEE 2020 such as: the Energy Sector Development Strategy for the Period 2005-2015, the National Renewable Energy Action Plan until 2020, the Strategy of the Mineral Resources Management until 2030, the Development Strategy for Railroad, Road, Air and Intermodal Transport in the Republic of Serbia for 2008-2015, the National Programme for Environmental Protection 2010-2019, the Environmental Approximation Strategy 2011-2019, the National Strategy for Sustainable Use of Natural Resources and Goods in the Republic of Serbia 2012-2021, the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, the Strategy for the Intellectual Property Development and the Strategy for Development of Information Society in the Republic of Serbia until 2020.
Strategies under the Inclusive Growth Pillar include: National Employment Strategy, National Youth Strategy, Republic of Serbia Public Health Strategy, The Strategy for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases, Youth Health Development Strategy, The Strategy for Continuous Improvement of the Quality of Health Care and Patients’ Safety, The National Mental Health Strategy, National Strategy on Fight Against HIV/AIDS and The National Strategy on Ageing.
Strategies under the Governance for Growth Pillar include: a Strategy for Public Administration Reform in the Republic of Serbia, a National Sustainable Development Strategy, a Fiscal Strategy, a Tax Administration Development Strategy, a Customs Administration Business Strategy, the Strategy of the Ministry of Finance for a Successful European Integration Process and a Strategy for Regulatory Reform.

The pre-crisis economic growth of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia outpaced the average regional growth, and while the crisis impacted the country, it was to a lesser extent than most of the SEE economies (Figure 1), due to a somewhat milder exposure to euro zone capital inflows and the banking sector than in most other SEE economies. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s GDP per capita relative to the EU average (in purchasing power standards) is in the middle range in comparison to other SEE economies, at 7,960 EUR in 2012.
Unemployment has been particularly high, with a slight decrease from around 35% in 2007 to 28.6% in 2013, but it still remains the highest in the region.
Exports per capita are at a regional average (just under 2,000 EUR per capita in 2012), as shown in Figure 2.
The general government sector is among the smaller ones in the region, at just above 30% of GDP. Public debt increased from around 20% of GDP in 2008 to around 36% of GDP in 2013, but still remains moderately low.
The headline indicators for The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia within the SEE 2020 Strategy are given in Table 1, along with the actual 2010-2013 data (where available)1. For most of the headline indicators, it has made progress towards reaching the 2020 target. However, the overall GDP per capita relative to the EU average shows a reverse trend, with a decrease from 36% in 2010–2011 to 35% in 2013 (partially due to a change in the purchasing power comparison estimates).
Table 1: SEE 2020 Strategy Headline Targets for The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2020 |
|
Overall strategic goals |
Adopted Strategy |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Actual data |
Adopted Strategy |
Source for 2011-2012/2013 data |
1. GDP per Capita Relative to the EU average (in PPS), % of EU-27 average |
36.0 |
36.0 |
35.0 |
n/a |
43.0 |
Eurostat |
2. Total Trade in Goods and Services (EUR million) |
7,834 |
9,670 |
9,683 |
9,747 |
15,500 |
State Statistical Office |
3. Trade Balance (% of GDP) |
-23.0 |
-19.6 |
-22.7 |
-19.6 |
-17.2 |
|
Integrated growth |
||||||
4. Intra-regional Trade in Goods (EUR million) |
1,243 |
1,452 |
1,336 |
n/a |
2,700 |
Dimension Report data sent by CEFTA |
5. Overall FDI Inflows (EUR million) |
160 |
337 |
72 |
252 |
600 |
Central Bank |
Smart Growth |
||||||
6. GDP per Person Employed (EUR at PPS) |
28,029 |
28,998 |
28,455 |
n/a |
35,000 |
State Statistical Office LFS, Eurostat for PPS, GDP as above |
7. Number of highly qualified persons in the workforce |
169,790 |
194,692 |
202,262 |
195,207 |
204,000 |
State Statistical Office LFS |
Sustainable Growth |
||||||
8. Net Enterprise Creation (new businesses per year) |
8,074 |
-2,379 |
1,306 |
-3,134 |
9,700 |
State Statistical Office |
9. Exports of Goods and Services per Capita (EUR) |
1,563 |
1,595 |
1,986 |
1,929 |
3,300 |
State Statistical Office |
Inclusive Growth |
||||||
10. Overall Employment Rate, % of 15+ population |
38.7 |
38.9 |
39.0 |
40.6 |
43.6 |
State Statistical Office LFS |
Governance for Growth |
||||||
11. Government Effectiveness (World Bank Governance Index) |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
n/a |
2.8 |
WGI |
While the total trade target and export per capita target for are more realistic than for other SEE countries, requiring 2014-2020 growths of 56% and 71% respectively, the inter-regional trade target may be too ambitious, as it implies an increase of 102% in 2014–2020. Although the indicator on FDI inflow is one-off annual data, which does not necessarily follow the inter-annual trend, the 2020 target value for FDI inflows is also quite ambitious requiring a growth of 138% by 2020 in comparison to the 2013 value.
1 An internal consistency check of the headline indicators for The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia shows broad consistency.
The Government has drafted the SEE 2020 National Action Plan for the period 2014–2015 and the plan currently awaits adoption. A total of 67 measures have been defined for 2014–2015. Figure 1 outlines a breakdown of the measures by pillar.
Measures and actions under the Integrated Growth Pillar include: advancing the terms and procedures for intra-regional trade within CEFTA 2006; strengthening the legal and institutional framework for standardisation, accreditation and metrology; further improving the climate to attract FDI; advancing the legal and strategic framework for industrial property through the elaboration of the Strategy for Industrial Property 2014–2017; further improving the business climate for investing in the country and supporting improvements to the structure of industry; and promoting exports.
Under the Smart Growth Pillar, measures, inter alia, consist of increasing the quality of and access to education at all levels; adopting the VET strategy (2013-2020) and finalisation of Entrepreneurial Learning Strategy (2014-2020), advancing the National Qualification Framework; linking education with labour market needs; enhancing R&D activities and innovation; developing a triple helix model; strengthening capacities to participate in the Horizon 2020 framework programme for research and innovation; further harmonisation of legislation in the area of electronic communications with the EU acquis; promoting e-services of the public sector; further advancing IT and e-education; rehabilitating cultural heritage, giving support to museums and advancing the film industry.
The Sustainable Growth Pillar includes several measures that will focus on the advancement of the energy sector in the country: increasing energy efficiency in the public and private sectors; advancing the legal and strategic framework in order to enhance the use of renewable sources of energy; putting in place transport infrastructure to advance regional transport and trade; advancing the strategic framework for climate change and environmental protection; ensuring the implementation of existing programmes for the management of natural resources; and strengthening capacities to increase competitiveness.
Under the Inclusive Growth Pillar, the focus will be on supporting the creation of new jobs through active labour measures; increasing the labour market skills of the unemployed; enhancing youth employment; strengthening the institutional framework for labour and social policy; reducing poverty and promoting social inclusion; enabling easier access to health services for all citizens; setting up an e-system for the provision of health services; and cooperating internationally with the SEE countries in the area of health.
Under the Governance for Growth Pillar, the government will focus on setting up a legal framework for the reform of public administration; completing the system for measuring the quality of administrative services and user satisfaction; expanding the scope and quality of e-public services; preventing and suppressing corruption in the Customs Office, local self-government and the public sector; and ensuring the implementation of the framework for further reform of the judiciary system.
Choose Area of Interest
- Overall strategic goals
- Integrated growth
- Smart growth
- Sustainable growth
- Inclusive growth
- Governance for growth
See Results on Chart or Table
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence